More KD Thoughts

After reading the results of the annual NBA GM preseason poll, in which league executives picked Kevin Durant as the player they'd most like to start a franchise with, I can't help but wonder if Sam Bowie is finally able to relax a little.

Now we know... KD was just being his humble self.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Sam or Greg Oden were bad draft picks, but it's becoming clearer and clearer that they were the wrong picks.  No matter what Oden does from here out, he won't reach the level that KD has already attained.  And, Durant is only getting better.

The taste is particularly bitter if you're in any way involved with the Portland Trailblazers, to be sure.  As a fan, an executive, a coach, a player, whatever.  You've been the unfortunate loser in two of the most lopsided draft mistakes in memory, if not ever.

Imagine for a moment a Blazers starting lineup of Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby/Joel Pryzbilla.  Then give me Nick Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Wes Matthews/Martell Webster etc. off the bench..?  Dayum.

OK, I do realize that the rosters wouldn't have shaken out quite like this if Durant had been chosen over Oden, but the foundation of Roy, Durant, and Aldridge would be there.  And that's more than enough to build a strong contender on top of, if you ask me.

Sorry, I know hindsight is 20/20 and all that.  The Blazers are solid nonetheless.  But just imagine...

More Questions Than Answers

Much has gone on this NBA offseason.  More than just about anybody can remember happening any other year.  With so much movement, so many new storylines, so many subplots, and one big Decision, we're left with lots of guesses, and even more shoulder shrugs as training camps open league-wide.

One of the biggest questions I have:  Who has a better shot at the title, The Lakers/Heat, or every other team in the league?  I say it's even money at best for the field...

Who's got the edge?

So, with so many questions and so few answers (apologies to Allen Iverson), I've jotted down a couple of the biggest questions for each team in the NBA as the season begins.  These barely scratch the surface, however, and this without a doubt is one of the more intriguing and exciting seasons that I've ever looked forward to.

Here they are, in no particular order:


Boston Celtics – can the original Big Three make another run, and will Shaq be the disruptive influence that many expect him to be? Or, the real question, will Shaq be able, in an end-of-season interview, to tell the world how much it means to have as many rings as Kobe again?


Dallas Mavericks - will the latest assortment of new players compliment Dirk all the way to the promised land? And will Jason Kidd have enough in the tank for a deep playoff run?


New Jersey Nets - is 12 wins the ceiling for this young group? And can they add the veteran superstardom that they’ve been promising those Knicks fans that they've been baiting?


Houston Rockets - this one all hinges on Yao…. Will he be able play for any solid length of time this season? Is he done? And who will the Rockets be trading to pick up more scoring?


New York Knicks - Will Stoudamire be able to keep up his output without Steve Nash delivering the rock? With all the new additions, will there be too much of a learning curve to have success during the season? And will this team play enough defense to get out of the first round should they make the playoffs?


Memphis Grizzlies - Is the monster Rudy Gay deal going to pay dividends? And how well will this group be able to compete in the stacked West while many of the teams that were below them last season seem improved?


Philadelphia 76ers - Does this team make the playoffs even in the top-heavy East? Will Evan Turner be able to keep pace with John Wall in the ROY race? Is Elton Brand still alive?


New Orleans Hornets – Will CP go all out in a contract year even if he’s got nothing to prove? And will a new coach and a shaken-up roster keep them in the playoff hunt?


Toronto Raptors – Where will the scoring come from? And where will the rebounding come from? And where will the ticket sales come from?


San Antonio Spurs – An even bigger question than Boston’s about this group being able to make another run. Can Tiago Splitter make enough of an impact? And will Richard Jefferson remember that he’s Richard Jefferson?


Chicago Bulls – Can Rose, Boozer, and Noah really make a run at the East’s top teams? Will Booze slow down their giant-killing playoff madness too much?


Denver Nuggets – Hmm… oh yeah: Does anyone want ‘Melo enough to give them what they want for him? And in the meantime, will they be able stay among the West’s upper crust? Do the players even take the team seriously any more?


Cleveland Cavaliers – where do they go from here..? And who should they be looking at in the lottery for 2011?


Minnesota Timberwolves – Who should they be looking at in the top five for 2011?


Detroit Pistons – how long before Joe decides to blow it up and start from scratch?


Portland Trail Blazers – Oden, Oden, Oden. And should Elliot Williams just put his name in for the dunk contest right now?


Indiana Pacers – Does Danny Granger have something to prove after being given meager playing time in the World’s this Summer? Will Darren Collison have anyone else to pass the ball to?


Oklahoma City Thunder – By how many points will KD win the scoring title this season? Will people realize that he’s not the only all-star on the roster (hello, Russell Westbrook)? And how well will Cole Aldrich continue the storied string of stiff white centers to come out of Kansas?


Milwaukee Bucks – Of course, will Bogut be good to go all season? If so, can they compete with the East’s upper echelon? Will Mike Redd be able to contribute? Are there enough touches available for all these scorers?


Utah Jazz – Is their roster improved with Al Jefferson? Can Raja Bell replace the youth and athleticism they lost in Wes Matthews (now in Portland)? And with the West getting deeper, do they have enough to make a run?


Atlanta Hawks – Is Joe Johnson really worth that much? Really?


Golden State Warriors – Can Keith Smart find an intelligent way to get this team to .500? Or at least play defense? And are the playoffs out of the question for at least another season or two?


Charlotte Bobcats – Was last season’s playoff appearance a fluke, or something to build on? And is MJ’s belief in Kwame Brown the same stubbornness that he was famous for as a player?


Los Angeles Clippers – Can their core stay on the floor? And what exactly will we see if it does? Can Blake Griffin compete with Wall for ROY?


Miami Heat – How many championships will they win?


Los Angeles Lakers – How many more championships will they win?


Orlando Magic – Can they get out of the East without a legit first option on offense anymore?


Phoenix Suns – Will the loss of Stoudamire really hurt them that much? How deep into the playoffs can they go without his scoring in the lane? Will Hedo's need for the ball work alongside the league's best ballhandler?


Washington Wizards – Clearly, can Wall and Arenas coexist in the backcourt? And is their youth, athleticism, and potential enough to carry them into the postseason in the East?

Sacramento Kings – Will DeMarcus Cousins go stir-crazy in Sacramento?  And can Tyreke give up enough touches to allow Cousins to make a run at ROY?

'Melo Drama

Welcome to Brooklyn.

Ok ok...  let's all relax about the Carmelo Anthony situation.  As I made clear about a month ago, the Nets are where he's been heading for a while now.

The question now, then, is which West team will replace the Nuggets as one of the eight that make the playoffs?

Tell you what, I'll get to work on some playoff predictions.  And if they pan out anywhere near as well as my Melo guess is looking, I'm going to Vegas next summer.  You're all invited.

Approval Ratings

Lately I've heard some debates about LeBron's current public image, and how it might change should the Heat win the championship.

It all stems from the fact that LeBron's positive "approval rating" has plummeted since The Decision.  In fact, we even hear the word hate thrown around every now and then, though those may just be echoes from NE Ohio.

Ironically, there was much talk about LeBron's desire to increase his marketability and "Global Icon" status.  He knows that winning championships are the best way to elevate your legacy as a player.  However, as has been argued by Mark Cuban, I believe that his actions have hindered his quest.  Sports fans don't back the bad guy (wresting fans, pipe down... I said SPORTS).  I'd guess that LeBron has lost enormous brand equity over the last few months.

Has he won our hearts..?

So, what will actually happen if and when the championships start rolling in?  I've seen and heard it argued in multiple forums that should LeBron and the Heat win it all, he will be vindicated.  I call BS.  Are we really to believe that suddenly people will forgive & forget, squash the beef, and stand to applaud LeBron's greatness if the Heat hoist the Larry O'Brien?  Puh-leese.

I'll tell you what will happen:  People will resent him even more for it.  And I'm not just talking about Cleveland.  Nobody will ever argue against him being a great player, but even the greatest players have detractors, haters, and enemies.  Just look at at the hoards of Kobe haters out there... Most will readily acknowledge his skill, but do you think they're happy about him winning championships?  Do you think they suddenly decided to give Lakers fans high-fives after game seven, and went shopping for black Lakers jerseys that say "Mamba" on the back?

Me neither.

It's KD time

I first had the thought after he won the scoring title.  Then, I became more convinced during his 1st-round playoff series against Kobe and the Lakers earlier this year (with a special shout-out to the first glimmer of the emergence of Russel Westbrook).  Now, of course, with a World Championship gold medal draped around his neck, I'm all but certain:  Kevin Durant will surpass LeBron as the top player in the NBA this season. 

It's all UP from here...

Let's face it... Kobe, while still around the top of the heap, is past his prime.  Yes, he may win another NBA championship or two over the next couple of years, but he'll no longer be the hottest ticket in the league.  Put it this way:  Swap Kobe for Durant, and do you go see the OKC Thunder when they come to town just because he's on the team?  But, do you go because Durant is?  I thought so.

And of course, there's the LeBron factor.  He's undeniably been the top performer in basketball over the last few seasons, not to mention the MVP.  He'll continue to be the most broadly skillful player on the court.  He's got an array of talents that Durant can't touch, and perhaps nobody has touched since Wilt.  But here's the thing:  Durant is now the best scorer in the league.  Period.  And people love scoring.

Factor in the HEAT/HATE factor, the pre-2010 Tiger Woods public image, the youth, and the up-and-coming team, and you have the beginning of the KD era. 

Long live the Durantula.  All we have to do now is find a new nickname.

Defining Moments

Watching the Cowboys/Redskins game the other day, I got a laugh out of Al Michaels' comment that "LeBron has brought his talents to the Potomac," meaning of course that LeBron was attending the game.  It occurred to me that we may never be rid of the "... bringing my talents..." variations as long as LeBron is still a public figure.  This is a good thing, I think.

Thanks for the tip...

Then it occurred to me that the "...bringing my talents..." line was a sort of defining moment for LeBron.  A moment that we all--at least those of us that were really looking--could get a sense of his personality.  Who he really was.

That made me wonder whether there were more of these televised moments that became Personality Defining Moments for NBA athletes, or could at least be interpreted that way. (Note: Of course I could include all pro athletes, coaches, movie stars, entertainers, etc. but who am I, Bill Simmons?)

And of course, there are... I'll never be able to come up with an exhaustive list, but here are the first few that popped into my head:

-Ron Artest thanks his psychiatrist after the Lakers win the 2010 NBA championship.  Yes, this gets the nod over the Motor City Melee.  It tells us more about who Ron Ron is.

-Mark Madsen dancing on stage at the Lakers' championship celebration.  If you don't think this defines Mark's personality, well then, you'd just be wrong.

-Michael Jordan's Hall Of Fame induction speech.  Ignore for a moment the somewhat understated applause and somber faces of former teammates and peers.  Jordan was outed to the world a year ago.

-LeBron's "The Decision" special.  Again, ignore for the moment that there's a coattail analogy to be made regarding Kobe Bryant here.  Ignore that his favorite teams are the daring and creative duo of the Yankees and Cowboys.  Look at what he's doing, listen to what he's saying, and tell me you don't know much more about him than you did six months ago.


Truly, these are just the tip of the iceberg.  I'll continue to revisit this idea from time to time as this blog trudges along.  And all two of you who read it are encouraged to send me suggestions.

FIBA semi-FINAL

The FIBA World Basketball Championships are finally under way.  You may have heard about some games that were being played here and there during the last couple of weeks, and even seen some on TV, but the games that are actually deciding the outcome just started a couple of days ago.  Only six or seven teams ever had a realistic glimmer of a hope to win it all, and we're now down to four of those.

Yes, Spain is out.  The pre-tournament favorite faltered from the outset, as did co-contender Greece.  Argentina is also out, who many believed had the best shot at winning once Spain started stumbling.  Despite the impressive play of Luis Scola, they just couldn't hang with the elite this year.

And what more can we say about home-court advantage..?  Turkey glides into the semifinals undefeated, winning by mostly comfortable margins.  I can't wait to witness the hysteria that will surround the USA-Turkey final.

Which brings me to the USA-Lithuania semifinal.  In my opinion, this will be the game that determines the winner of the tournament.  I can't see our boys doing any less than winning it all in convincing fashion, but Lithuania should give them a run for their money.

Give that cat a TEAM USA jersey!  Then get me a Simit!

True, this is the same Lithuania team that we beat just a few weeks ago.  But they've stepped up their game in a big way since then, going undefeated in the tournament thus far.  Luckily, we've recently seen them up close, and we know what their strengths are.  If we can block out, pull rebounds, and defend the three point line, we'll be world champs once again. 

Take that to the bank.

The only question that remains is, what do we call this team..?  Redeem Team II? 

Eat Like The Taller Half

What, do they not have pizza in Turkey..?

Just got finished reading this article in the LA Weekly, and I say they're really on to something... I'd love to see a regular column or series that follows a pro player to his (or her) favorite hole-in-the-wall grub spots, or follows veterans when they introduce rookies or new teammates to the cutty locations that only locals know.  Love it! 

Wouldn't it at least be a solid addition to a team website?  A local paper?  Who can I pitch this idea to..?

Below the FIBA radar

Hmmm... the FIBA World Championships are in full swing, and where has all the Rudy Fernandez talk gone?  Nowhere, I say, which is exactly where Rudy will be going before the season starts.

Mi amigo, vamos a ganar

There's no doubt in my mind that ol' Rudy has grossly overvalued himself as an NBA player.  He doesn't seem to be helping his case much in Turkey, either.  If he thinks he'll be traded to a team where he'll be starting, I can tell him right now that the Washington Generals don't have the pieces for a trade, and I can't see him starting anywhere else.

Of course, anything can happen once the season starts.  Players get injured.  Unexpected teams start to make a run.  Before you know it, somebody needs some shooting and energy off the bench for their playoff push. 

Rest easy in Stumptown, Rudy.  You'll get your ticket out when the time comes.  You may even get a chance to play with one of your Spanish buddies once Sasha Vujacic wears out his welcome...

Where Will 'Melo land..?

As a side note, do we really want a league in which not only legitimate stars like Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul resort to strongarming their franchises with trade demands and list of destinations, but the likes of Rudy Fernandez as well?

We'd seen the signs...

But, to the issue at hand:  Since it's become clear that Anthony will be shipped out of Denver ASAP, it's also time to predict where he'll end up.  Y'know, because we all love predictions, especially bloggers... No skin off our asses if we're wrong, but we feel like Soothsayer Supreme if we're right. 

My vote(s): Either New Jersey or Golden State, with a slight lean toward the Nets. 

Sure, the Clippers are in LA and 'Melo's wife works there, blah blah... It's still the Clippers.  And sure, the MJ factor looms rather large in Charlotte, but it's still the Bobcats.  Remember, we're dealing with a list of demands.  Nobody demands the Clippers or the Bobcats. 

The Rockets have also been mentioned, but the uncertainty of Yao ever playing again is sure to put the kibosh on that one.  Plus, the Rockets play in Houston.  As far as I'm aware, nobody has ever demanded to go to Houston for any reason.

The Nets and the Warriors each have new owners, pending or otherwise, that are surely looking to make a big splash.  Jersey gets the advantage because of the bold swagger, the deeper pocketbooks, the City of New York, the prospect of completely owning Brooklyn, and the slightly more promising young talent. 

But at this point, would it really shock us if he signed with Miami...?

Time for shooting drills...

You might wanna work on that release...

Once again, it seems that Rajon Rondo's lack of an outside J has reared its ugly head. 

It wasn't hard to spot the Lakers' defensive strategy of "cheat off of Rondo as far as you need to" during the finals.  Much was made of it, in fact.  And whether or not RR needed any more personal bulletin board material to get him into the gym with a shooting coach, Coach K gladly gave it to him upon his exit from Team USA on Tuesday, essentially calling Rondo a "non-shooter."

Now, if I'm Rajon, and I suddenly have about a month and a half before the NBA preseason, do I let a day go by without jacking up at least 500 jumpers?

Four Teams, One Real Impact

I'm telling you... Nap Town is all that!

In the little trade that just went down between the Rockets, Hornets, Pacers, and Nets, much can be made of the Rockets shedding payroll, the Nets obtaining a hefty expiring contract, the Hornets picking up an athletic swingman that can shoot, etc. etc. etc.  Don't let the smokescreen fool you.  The fact is that this trade was swung for one huge reason and one only:  The Hornets are trying to make Chris Paul happy.  And the Pacers lucked-up and became the chief beneficiaries. 

By shipping out Darren Collison, who played far above expectations last season in Chris Paul's absence, the Hornets' front office is sending a clear message to Paul that they are committed to him for the foreseeable future. Someone apparently feels that Paul's ego and/or confidence is too fragile to have a promising young guard playing behind or beside him.  Or maybe Paul asked for this.  Who knows.  In any case, if there was ever a question, this is now undeniably Paul's team.


Forget that Collison's rookie contract will be paying him under $2 million for a few more years, right?  Well, I'll bet the Pacers don't forget it.  The team that's been famously hunting for a point guard as long as any team in the league just had one fall in their lap.  Yes friends, even in the NBA, patience can be a virtue. 

Could Be A Contender

I don't think there are many fans, writers, or analysts left that don't see the OKC Thunder as one of the top teams in the West.  One good reason is all the smart moves they're making.  Sam Presti seems satisfied with flying under the radar and building up from a solid foundation rather than making glitzy moves and jockeying for headlines. 

Don't you look at KD that way!

Case in point: OKC signed its first-round draft pick, Cole Aldrich.  This is the kind of player that every GM in the league says it wants, but instead drafts the sexier "upside" players.  Name me a team that doesn't need size and defense off the bench.  You can't.  Except maybe OKC...

End of Summer (League)

Quick thoughts on the Las Vegas summer league games:

No surprise that John Wall thrived in this setting.  In the Big Show, I think he'll have some trouble scoring for a while, but he'll be plenty of trouble for veteran guards to keep up with.  Therefore, his teammates should get plenty of good looks off of help.  Enter JaVale McGee, who looks like he could have a bright future indeed...

Smart move to crop the mop, Luke.

Are the Kings the next Thunder..?  Well, they don't exactly have Kevin Durant on board, but they're off to a good start with Evans and Cousins.  Now, where will that cap room go..?

And to the NorthWest, I can't help but feel that our buddy Luke Babbitt will be little more than a specialist for the Blazers, coming in to spread the floor and hit open shots.  I'm not down on this fact, mind you, as I believe there's a well-defined place for specialists of this kind on any team, but I hope Coach Nate will be able to find someone to fill up the minutes that got traded away with Martell Webster.  At least Luke cut his hair.

'Bout Time

Raising a glass to all Warriors fans, who should be toasting the occasion of the sale of their team.

Though I'm still a little dubious about one of the owners, I'm excited about the post-Cohan era.  I'd say it was generally acknowledged that Chris Cohan was one of the worst owners in sports.  Not a shocker, then, that the long-speculated frontrunner in the purchase of the Warriors, Larry Ellison, seems to have been denied for personal reasons..?  Only the Cohan clan. 

And now, hopefully, on to the business of clearing out the front office and handing Don Nelson his hat.  Obviously I have no idea who will replace Nelson as coach, but I hope Dwane Casey is at or near the top of the list.

And by the way, props for the new logo are in order as well.  If the Oakland side of the Bay Bridge, which the new design is based on, ever gets finished...

High on Caracter

Looks like the Lakers may have potentially pulled off one of the steals of the 2010 draft, pulling Derrick Caracter in the 2nd round, 58th overall.

I watched the Lakers-Pistons game as Caracter was having no trouble showing up 7th overall pick Greg Monroe just about every time down the floor.  Monroe looked a little lost on both ends, looked out of shape, and looked like the Warriors are proving me wrong by drafting Ekpe Udoh at number 6, when I argued for Monroe.

Of course, this is still Summer League, and anything can happen come regular season time.  But it's nice to know the Lakers may have pulled ANOTHER rabbit out of their hat...

Baby steps?

So, what has Portland been doing in the midst of all this NBA hoopla?  Staying on the cusp.

Yes, flipping Martell Webster for Luke Babbitt and Ryan Gomes was the right move.  Gives them two more solid role players for the price of one.  Yes, Phoenix and Utah are weaker.  For now.  But are you really competing, even in the West?  Are they biding their time until the Lakers current dynasty is done?  The newsflash should be that the Thunder have already leapfrogged them.  We'll need to see a big move, involving LA, most likely, to stay near the top of the West.

Lowered Ceilings

Last thought about the LeBron free agency saga:

If I were a fan in Cleveland, I'd still be sad, but I might be able to talk myself into understanding him leaving if he went for the big lights, big pressure, and big challenge in the Big Apple.  Or maybe even the almost-as-big city of Chicago, to play with the other young guns.

It'd be hard for me to understand, though, with him essentially just wanting to go play with his buddies.  Sure, he can try to talk us into the idea that this gives him the best chance of winning multiple titles, but it's also the easiest and most comfortable situation for him outside of Ohio.

Bolt for the biggest stage in the world, and I can forgive you.  You needed to prove something.  Something that you couldn't attain even by winning a championship in Cleveland.  The power and the allure of bringing a title to MSG would be unparalleled in the NBA.

In Miami, it will be more spectacle than anything else.

Risky

Gotta say, for all the criticism he might receive for making the "wrong" decision, respect must go to LeBron for sacrificing money, stats, status, individual legacy, etc.  For people to be mad at him after not taking the max money and the max ego-building offer would be just plain hypocritical.  We have to be fair to these guys.  It seems like a lose-lose for LeBron no matter what he decided tonight, in some way.  I say good luck, and can't wait to see them play.

Another thing people aren't giving him credit for in this situation is the risk factor... If he stays in Cleveland and doesn't win a championship, it would be disappointing, but they would applaud his effort and thank him for the time.  If he signs with the Bulls, Knicks, Nets, or anyone else and doesn't win a championship, it would be a big letdown and fans would be confused and a little bit angry, thinking they overestimated him.  If he doesn't win in Miami, it will be nothing less than flat-out failure, and that would be his legacy.  The two MVP awards would always be questioned, all the accolades would be second-guessed, and he would be branded the biggest flop in the history of the game.  I truly believe that this decision has that level of implications.

That being said, I'm positive that they'll put on one hell of a show.  When does the season start..?

And of course...

Can this be read any way but one..?

http://www.usmagazine.com/celebritynews/news/lebron-james-plans-weekend-party-in-south-beach-201087

Mario Chalmers is jumping out of his chair right now.

Just the Booze talking..?

Carlos Boozer's pitch to LeBron:  Join the Bulls, and we have the best starting five in the NBA:

•Derrick Rose
•LeBron James
•Luol Deng
•Carlos Boozer
•Joakim Noah

Hard to argue.

The Trifecta

I've been thinking about starting up yet another sports blog for a while now, but I finally felt compelled to during this, the most purposely public free agent period in the history of the NBA, and for one reason in particular:  With the way the signings of D-Wade, Bosh, and soon-to-be LeBron are shaking out, I feel like everyone that's predicting what would happen if Miami lands the big three has gotten it wrong.

I know as well as the next blogger how good of a passer LeBron is, and how good of a finisher D-Wade is.  I can't assume, though, that LeBron would be content to play second-banana as a sort of ultra-Pippen to Wade's Jordan, as suggested by just about everything I've heard or read.   I would venture to guess, though, that Wade would be willing to defer to LeBron in a similar fashion.  I think Wade gets it.  I think he knows what's happening here, and what he could be getting himself into.  I think he realizes that the LeBron machine is bigger, and needs more fuel to run, and he's ok with that.  Most of all, I think he's secure with the knowledge that he truly would be the better finisher on that team, and would be called upon whenever necessary to shoulder the load. 

Just let the two-time league MVP do his thing.  Let him get in the flashy dunks, let him make the no-look pass to Bosh, let him toss the chalk into the humid Miami air to make the fans happy, then, when your team's down two with 15 seconds to go in game 5, be ready to put the ball in the basket.  I think Wade can do that. 

Of course, we still don't know where LeBron will land, do we.  The move nobody is talking about, and therefore may be the most likely, would be the Nets.  The winning move is surely the Bulls, who are instant East contenders with LeBron.  The most fun move, whatever that may count for, is undoubtedly Miami. 

The ballsiest, most correct move, though, would be the Knicks.  C'mon... LeBron/Amar'e vs. Wade/Bosh for the next four years?  Best subplot I can think of.  And even though he's no Steve Nash, LeBron could conceivably free up Amar'e and deliver him the ball well enough to make that thing work.  For me, this is the dream scenario.